Litheko tsa khauta li fihlile holimo ka 2023! Na ho ntse ho loketse ho tsetela ho khauta ka 2024?

Bakeng sa batseteli ba Machaena, leha 'maraka oa setoko o le botsoa ka 2023,' maraka oa khauta o tšoana le thunya letsohong - ho tloha qalong ho isa bofelong ba selemo, theko ea khauta ea lefats'e e 'nile ea otla ka makhetlo a mangata' me e ntse e phahama ka $ 2000 ka ounce.

Ka 2023, khauta e ile ea sebetsa hantle haholo 'me ea hlahella maemong a phaello e phahameng, lihlahisoa tse ntle ho feta, libonto le mebaraka e mengata ea setoko. Ke hobane'ng ha theko ea khauta lefatšeng ka bophara e ka lula e le matla hakaale tikolohong ea 'maraka moo ho se tsitse ho sa feleng?

Ho latela lintlha tse tsoang ho Lekhotla la Lefatše la Khauta, tlhoko ea khauta ea lefats'e e ile ea lula e tsitsitse likarolong tse tharo tsa pele tsa 2023 mme e feta tekanyo e tloaelehileng ea lilemo tse leshome tse fetileng, haholo-holo ka lebaka la theko e ntle ea libanka tse bohareng le nts'etsopele ea indasteri ea tlhahiso. Haholo-holo, thuso ea khauta e tsoang libankeng tse bohareng ho pota lefatše e ntse e eketseha 'me e fihlile boemong bo phahameng. Har'a tsona, China, India, Bolivia le Singapore li fetohile linaha tse ka sehloohong tse rekang khauta ka 2023.

Juan Carlos Artigas, Mookameli oa Lipatlisiso tsa Lefatše oa Lekhotla la Lefatše la Khauta, o boletse hore khauta, e le letlotlo la polokelo, e na le litšobotsi tsa ts'ireletseho, lichelete, ho hloka botsitso, le phaello e ntle. E ka thusa beng ba matlo ho thibela likotsi, ho ntlafatsa ts'ebetso ea li-portfolio tsa matsete ka nepo, le ho fa bo-ramatsete meputso e tsitsitseng le e phahameng. "Lena hape ke lebaka la bohlokoa le etsang hore banka e bohareng e 'nile ea tsoela pele ho reka khauta ka lilemo tse fetang leshome."

Liphetho tsa tlhahlobo ea polokelo ea khauta ea banka e bohareng ea 2023 li bonts'a hore ho feta 70% ea libanka tse bohareng tse entsoeng lipatlisiso li lebelletse hore mehloli ea khauta ea lefats'e e tla eketseha likhoeling tse 12 tse tlang. Lintlha tse joalo ka sekgahla sa tsoala, maemo a inflation, likotsi tsa geopolitical, the multipolar trend of global reserve currency system, le ESG ke tsona tse susumetsang hore libanka tse bohareng li tsoelepele ho reka khauta nakong e tlang.

"Mokhoa oa de dollarization ka 2023 o hlakile, 'me mokhoa ona o tla tsoela pele ho fihlela 2024." Chen Wenling, setsebi se ka sehloohong sa moruo oa Setsi sa China sa Phapanyetsano ea Machabeng ea Moruo le motlatsi oa motsamaisi oa Boto ea Phethahatso, o lumela hore lilemong tsa morao tjena, ka keketseho ea mathata a likoloto tsa US le likotsi tsa lichelete, linaha tse ngata li qala ho belaella mokoloto oa lidolara tsa Amerika.

Ka Tšitoe 2023, kakaretso ea bonto ea polokelo ea matlotlo ea US e tla fihla ho US $300 milione, e leng karolo ea 11% ea kakaretso ea sekoloto sa lefats'e le 150% ea kakaretso ea sekoloto sa lehae. Hoo e ka bang 18% ea lekeno la eona la lichelete e tla sebelisoa ho lefa tsoala ea sekoloto. Ho feta moo, mokoloto oa malapa oa US o fihlile ho $ 17.06 trillion. Chen Wenling o boletse hore tlas'a maemo a holimo a likotsi tse fapaneng, "de dollarization" e fetohile mokhoa o moholo ka nako e telele.

Ho latela pono e sebetsang, hajoale, libanka tse bohareng lefats'eng ka bophara li ntse li eketsa ts'ebetso ea tsona ea khauta ka khutso le ho fapanyetsana lichelete tsa tsona tsa polokelo, ho ba basebetsi ba de dollarization. Ho ea ka phuputso e entsoeng ke Lekhotla la Lefatše la Khauta, boholo ba libanka tse bohareng li lumela hore thepa ea lidolara tsa Amerika e tla fokotseha mme thepa ea Yuan ea Chaena e lebelletsoe ho imena habeli ho latela kabo ea polokelo ea nako e tlang. Ho feta moo, ka lebaka la ts'ebetso ea eona e ntle libakeng tse kotsi haholo le bokhoni ba ho fapanyetsana likotsi tsa tikoloho, linaha tse ngata tse ntseng li hōla li talima khauta e le sesebelisoa sa ho boloka boleng ba nako e telele le matsete a fapaneng. "Nakong e tlang, limmaraka tse ntseng li hōla le tse ntseng li tsoela pele li ka 'na tsa eketsa haholo karolo ea khauta libakeng tsa polokelo, ho e sebelisa e le mokhoa oa ho se nke lehlakore le ho sireletsa." Ankai o boletse hore ha nako e ntse e ea, tlhoko ea libanka tsa lefats'e le mekhatlo ea semmuso ea ho reka khauta e imenne habeli, e leng se tlisitseng melemo ea bohlokoa 'marakeng oa khauta.

Ntle le ho ba karolo ea bohlokoa ea lichelete tsa lichelete tsa kantle ho naha ea banka e bohareng, khauta e boetse e na le litšobotsi tse peli e le sesebelisoa sa matsete, thepa ea maemo a holimo le thepa ea ho etsa mabenyane.

Lekhotla la Lefatše la Khauta le bolela esale pele hore mokhoa oa libanka tse bohareng tse tsoelang pele ho reka khauta o ka 'na oa tsoela pele ka lilemo tse ngata kapa esita le mashome a lilemo,' me ho lebeletsoe ho tšehetsa ts'ebetso ea khauta.

Mohloli: Litaba tsa Shangguan