Amaxabiso egolide abethe phezulu ngo-2023! Ngaba kusafanelekile ukutyala imali kwigolide ngo-2024?

Kubatyali-mali baseTshayina, nangona i-stock market idodobala ngo-2023, imarike yegolide ifana nokudutyulwa engalweni - ukususela ekuqaleni ukuya ekupheleni konyaka, ixabiso legolide lehlabathi liye labetha ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuphakama okutsha kwaye liye lanyuka phezulu kwi-2000 yeedola nge-ounce.

Ngo-2023, igolide iqhube kakuhle kakhulu kwaye yagqama kwindawo enenzala ephezulu, kwimveliso yorhwebo egqwesileyo, iibhondi, kunye noninzi lweemarike zesitokhwe. Kutheni ixabiso legolide kwihlabathi linokuhlala lomelele kangaka kwindawo yentengiso apho ukungaqiniseki kuhlala kunganciphi?

Ngokwedatha evela kwiBhunga leGolide leHlabathi, imfuno yegolide yehlabathi yahlala izinzile kwiikota ezintathu zokuqala zika-2023 kwaye yadlula inqanaba lomndilili wale minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo, ikakhulu ngenxa yokuthengwa kwesambuku kwiibhanki ezingoovimba kunye nophuhliso loshishino lwemveliso. Ngokukodwa, i-subsidy yegolide evela kwiibhanki eziphambili kwihlabathi jikelele iyaqhubeka ikhula kwaye ifikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Phakathi kwazo, iChina, iIndiya, iBolivia, kunye neSingapore ibe ngamazwe aphambili athenga igolide ngo-2023.

UJuan Carlos Artigas, uMlawuli woPhando weHlabathi weBhunga leGolide leHlabathi, wathi igolide, njenge-asethi yogcino, ineempawu zokhuseleko, ukungabi namali, ukuguquguquka okuphantsi, kunye nembuyekezo entle. Inokunceda abanini bemingcipheko yokubiyela, iphucule ngokufanelekileyo ukusebenza kweepotifoliyo zotyalo-mali, kwaye ibonelele abatyali-mali ngembuyekezo ezinzileyo nephezulu. "Esi sisizathu esibalulekileyo sokuba kutheni ibhanki ephakathi ibisoloko ithenga igolide ngaphezulu kweminyaka elishumi."

Iziphumo zovavanyo luka-2023 lwebhanki yelizwe jikelele zovimba wegolide zibonisa ukuba ngaphezulu kwe-70% yeebhanki ezingoovimba eziphononongiweyo zilindele ukuba oovimba begolide behlabathi banyuke kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezizayo. Imiba efana nenzala, amanqanaba okwenyuka kwamaxabiso, imingcipheko yelizwe, intsingiselo ye-multipolar yenkqubo yemali yogcino lwehlabathi, kunye ne-ESG zezona zinto ziqhuba iibhanki ezingoovimba ukuze ziqhubeke nokuthenga igolide kwixesha elizayo.

"Umkhwa we-dollarization ngo-2023 ucacile, kwaye le ndlela iya kuqhubeka kude kube ngu-2024." U-Chen Wenling, ingcali yezoqoqosho ye-China Centre for International Economic Exchanges kunye nosekela-mlawuli weBhodi yesiGqeba, ukholelwa ukuba kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kunye nokwanda kweengxaki zamatyala ase-US kunye neengozi zemali, amazwe amaninzi aqala ukubuza ngetyala ledola laseMelika.

NgoDisemba ka-2023, isixa-mali sisonke se-US Treasury bond iya kufikelela kwi-US $300 yezigidi, yenza i-11% yetyala lilonke lehlabathi kunye ne-150% yetyala lilonke lasekhaya. Malunga ne-18% yengeniso yayo yemali eya kusetyenziselwa ukuhlawula inzala yetyala. Ukongeza, ityala lasekhaya lase-US lifikelele kwi-17.06 yeetriliyoni zeedola. U-Chen Wenling uthe phantsi kwe-superposition yeengozi ezahlukeneyo, "i-dollarization" iye yaba yindlela enkulu kwixesha elide.

Ngokwembono ebambekayo, ngoku, iibhanki ezingoovimba kwihlabathi jikelele zithe cwaka zonyusa igolide yazo kwaye zahlula-hlula iimali ezizigcinayo, zisiba ngabasebenzi be-dollarization. Ngokophando olwenziwa yiWorld Gold Council, uninzi lweebhanki eziphambili zikholelwa ukuba ii-asethi zeedola zaseMelika ziya kuncipha kwaye i-yuan yaseTshayina kulindeleke ukuba iphindwe kabini ngokwemiqathango yolwabiwo lwexesha elizayo. Ukongezelela, ngenxa yokusebenza kwayo kakuhle kwiindawo ezinomngcipheko ophezulu kunye nokukwazi ukuhlukana kweengozi ze-geopolitical, amazwe amaninzi asakhulayo ajonga igolide njengesixhobo sokugcinwa kwexabiso lexesha elide kunye notyalo-mali olwahlukeneyo. "Kwixesha elizayo, iimarike ezikhulayo kunye neziphuhlayo zinokuthi zikhulise kakhulu umlinganiselo wegolide kwiindawo zokugcina, zisebenzise njengendlela yokungathathi hlangothi kunye nokukhusela." U-Ankai uthe ekuhambeni kwexesha, iibhanki ezingoovimba behlabathi kunye nemfuno yamaziko asemthethweni okuthenga igolide iphindwe kabini, nto leyo eye yazisa iinzuzo ezibalulekileyo kwimarike yegolide.

Ukongeza ekubeni licandelo elibalulekileyo koovimba lonaniso lwebhanki enguvimba, igolide ikwaneempawu ezimbini njengesixhobo sotyalo-mali, izinto zodidi oluphezulu, kunye nezinto zokwenza izacholo.

I-World Gold Council iqikelela ukuba indlela yeebhanki eziphambili eziqhubeka nokuthenga igolide inokuqhubeka iminyaka emininzi okanye amashumi eminyaka, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ixhase ngakumbi ukusebenza kwegolide.

Umthombo: Iindaba zeShangguan