Mitengo yegoridhe yakakwira zvakanyanya muna 2023! Zvichiri kukosha here kuisa mari mugoridhe muna 2024?

Kune vanosima mari vekuChina, kunyangwe musika wemari wakaita husimbe muna 2023, musika wegoridhe wakafanana nepfuti paruoko - kubva pakutanga kusvika pakupera kwegore, mutengo wegoridhe wepasi rose waramba uchikwira kumusoro uye wanga uchikwira pamusoro pemadhora mazana maviri paaundi.

Muna 2023, goridhe rakaita zvinonwisa mvura uye rakamira zvakanaka munzvimbo ine mubereko wepamusoro, zvinhu zviri nani, mabhondi, uye misika mizhinji yemastock. Nei mutengo wegoridhe wepasi rose uchigona kuramba wakasimba zvakadaro mumusika umo kusava nechokwadi kunoramba kuripo?

Zvinoenderana nedata kubva kuWorld Gold Council, kudiwa kwegoridhe repasi rose kwakaramba kwakagadzikana muzvikamu zvitatu zvekutanga zve2023 uye kwakapfuura mwero wepakati pemakore gumi apfuura, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekutenga mambure nemabhanga epakati uye kusimudzira indasitiri yekugadzira. Kunyanya, rubatsiro rwegoridhe kubva kumabhanga epakati pasi rose rinoramba richiwedzera uye rasvika pakakwirira. Pakati pavo, China, India, Bolivia, neSingapore dzave nyika huru dziri kutenga goridhe muna 2023.

Juan Carlos Artigas, Global Research Director weWorld Gold Council, akataura kuti goridhe, sechinhu chekuchengetedza, ine hunhu hwekuchengetedza, hupfumi, kuderera kuderera, uye kudzoka kwakanaka. Inogona kubatsira varidzi njodzi dzehedge, kunyatso vandudza mashandiro ekudyara mapotifolio, uye kupa vanoisa mari kune yakagadzikana uye yakakwira kudzoka. "Ichi zvakare chikonzero chakakosha nei bhanga guru ranga richitenga goridhe kweanopfuura makore gumi."

Mhedzisiro yeongororo ye2023 yepasi rose yebhangi repakati pebhangi inoratidza kuti anopfuura makumi manomwe muzana emabhangi epakati anotarisira kuti goridhe repasi rose richawedzera mumwedzi gumi nemiviri inotevera. Zvinhu zvakaita semubereko wemari, inflation level, geopolitical risks, the multipolar trend of the global reserve currency system, uye ESG ndizvo zvinonyanya kutyaira kuti mabhanga epakati arambe achitenga goridhe mune ramangwana.

"Maitiro emadhora muna 2023 ari pachena, uye maitiro aya achaenderera mberi kusvika 2024." Chen Wenling, mukuru wezvehupfumi weChina Center for International Economic Exchanges uye mutevedzeri wemukuru we Executive Board, anotenda kuti mumakore achangopfuura, nekuwedzera kwedambudziko rechikwereti cheUS uye njodzi dzemari, nyika zhinji dzinotanga kubvunza nezvechikwereti chemadhora ekuUS.

Panosvika Zvita 2023, huwandu hwese hweUS treasury bond huchasvika US $300 miriyoni, ichiverengera 11% yechikwereti chepasi rose uye 150% yechikwereti chose chepamba. Inenge 18% yemari yayo ichashandiswa kubhadhara chikwereti chemubereko. Pamusoro pezvo, chikwereti chemumba cheUS chasvika $17.06 trillion. Chen Wenling akataura kuti pasi pehukuru hwenjodzi dzakasiyana siyana, "de dollarization" yave chiitiko chikuru munguva refu.

Kubva pamaonero anoshanda, parizvino, mabhanga epakati pasi rose ari kuwedzera chinyararire kubata kwavo kwegoridhe uye kusiyanisa mari yavo yekuchengetera, vachiva vashandi ve de dollarization. Maererano neongororo yakaitwa neWorld Gold Council, mabhanga mazhinji epakati anotenda kuti madhora ekuAmerica achadzikira uye midziyo yeChinese yuan inotarisirwa kupeta kaviri maererano nekugoverwa kweramangwana. Pamusoro pezvo, nekuda kwekuita kwayo kwakanaka munzvimbo dzine njodzi huru uye kugona kusiyanisa njodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika, nyika zhinji dzichiri kusimukira dzinoona goridhe sechishandiso chekuchengetedza kukosha kwenguva refu uye kudyara kwakasiyana. "Mune ramangwana, misika iri kusimukira uye ichiri kusimukira inogona kuwedzera zvakanyanya chikamu chegoridhe mumatura, ichiishandisa senzira yekusagadzikana uye kudzivirira." Ankai akati nekufamba kwenguva, mabhanga makuru epasi rose nemasangano ehurumende anoda kutenga goridhe zvakapetwa kaviri, izvo zvakaunza zvakakosha pamusika wegoridhe.

Pamusoro pekuva chikamu chakakosha chebhanga guru renyika rinochengeterwa mari yekunze, goridhe rinewo zvinhu zviviri semudziyo wekudyara, zvinhu zveumbozha, uye kugadzira zvishongo.

World Gold Council inofanotaura kuti maitiro emabhanga epakati ari kuramba achitenga goridhe anogona kuenderera mberi kwemakore akawanda kana makumi emakore, uye anotarisirwa kutsigira kushanda kwegoridhe.

Kunobva: Shangguan Nhau